SPENGE — Donald Trump will take office as President of the United States on January 20th. Christian Hänel from Spenge, who has been the President and CEO of a foundation in Washington since 2023, discusses the mood in the United States and the reasons for Trump’s reelection.
Your office is located just ten minutes from the White House, where Donald Trump is now moving back in. As the President & CEO of the US partner organization of the German Humboldt Foundation, what are your impressions of the mood in the United States? In Germany, there was talk that Trump was elected primarily for economic reasons. Do you agree with this assessment?
Christian Hänel: The overall economic data for the United States is excellent. We have full employment, growth rates that Germany can only dream of—on paper, the economy is almost in perfect shape. The per capita income in the “poorest” state, Mississippi, is still higher than in Germany. But in Germany, unlike here, many expenses for people’s basic needs such as education, healthcare, and job protection, are covered by the state.
Pandemic-induced inflation hit the United States hard, and prices for many goods and services remain high, even though inflation has significantly decreased. When the cost of eggs, butter, and milk for a family’s breakfast is more than $20, many Americans indeed face challenges.
“Price pressure is pervasive”
My family and I belong to the relatively privileged group here in the United States. Nevertheless, price pressure is everywhere because prices here are incredibly high. A weekend trip to New York City, for example, costs more than a ten-day trip from Germany to Denmark—which is far from cheap by EU standards—when you account for tolls, parking, hotel rooms, various “service charges,” and meals.
The economic policies of the Biden administration have significantly improved the situation, not least by reducing inflation to “normal” levels. No country’s economy has come out of the pandemic as well as that of the United States. However, the full effects of these economic successes haven’t yet reached the average person.
In Germany, most people cannot understand how someone like Trump, who behaves as he does and is also a convicted criminal, could be elected. Why didn’t this deter Americans from voting for him?
Hänel: Many voted for Trump not despite but, rather, because of his missteps, his boundary-crossing behavior, and his brash outbursts. These people accept all of this as a necessary way to “stir up” the “system”—a “system” in which they feel left out, their interests sidelined. As for Trump’s legal troubles, with each new investigation, the stubborn loyalty of his supporters has further solidified.
Before the election, there was only one trial that ended with a conviction. Trump was found guilty of paying hush money to a former porn actress with whom he allegedly had a one-night stand. Even staunch Trump opponents considered this case irrelevant compared to the investigations regarding his role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, or his phone call with Georgia’s Secretary of State, where he urged him to “find” 11,000 votes for him after the 2020 election to win the state and its electoral votes.
I am curious to see how future generations of historians will evaluate the fact that over the last four years, the American legal system failed to deliver a judgment on these apparent abuses of the law by Donald Trump. Because time ran out before more legal proceedings could be opened, the defeated one became the reelected one.
Donald Trump has assembled an arch-conservative government. Do you see this as a threat to democracy in the United States?
Hänel: The designated Trump government is certainly not “arch conservative.” I consider this label to be very misleading. Conservatism aims to preserve traditions, protect what works, and prevent too much change. Trump wants the opposite. Like in 2016, he ran once again as a “disruptor” and got reelected. Trump is putting together a team that is unconditionally loyal, with whom he wants to dismantle structures and turn processes upside down. He wants to be a radical “change agent.”
“Trump could be a danger to the rule of law”
Breaking outdated thinking and behaviors is not necessarily a bad thing in and of itself. However, there is a real risk: how much damage will be done to democratic structures and the rule-of-law? More crucially, how resilient are the mechanisms of separation of powers and democratic control over political decision-makers? Established institutions will certainly be put under immense pressure and stress. And the aggressive rhetoric accompanying the change initiatives fuels intense fear, certainly among the millions who did not vote for Trump.
How do you think Trump’s election will affect US-Germany relations?
Hänel: First, we must not forget that even under a President Kamala Harris, the pressure on Germany to take on more foreign policy responsibility would have also increased. The demand from Trump’s first term that Germany should invest at least 2 percent of its budget in defense did not originate with him. This goal had been set at a NATO summit during the Obama administration. Now, the President-elect Trump is demanding 5 percent from NATO partners. This number was pulled out of thin air. The British Foreign Secretary has already pointed out that this would also require the United States to invest more in defense.
Trump (successfully) follows the same pattern: He wants to shock, create uncertainty, and shake up the “system,” and, in the resulting chaos, position himself as a “strong leader,” setting the agenda and “governing through.”
“Trump’s policy is isolationist”
It’s also clear that the guiding principle of the Trump administration is “America First.” It’s important to understand that this is primarily directed inward, not outward. Trump’s recent alarming remarks about “reclaiming” the Panama Canal, the “taking over” of Greenland, and “uniting” with Canada may contradict this, but they also fit perfectly into the pattern of stirring up chaos. “America First” means, above all, that everything that is produced in and by America should benefit America and Americans. It also has isolationist traits, and isolationism is not a new phenomenon in American history. The United States entered World War II long after Germany had invaded Poland, and only when America itself was attacked by the Japanese at Pearl Harbor.
What concerns me is the question of whether and to what extent the United States will continue to take on geopolitical responsibility in the confrontation with autocratic regimes worldwide. Generations of left-wing anti-Americans in Germany have repeatedly demanded that the United States stop playing the role of the “world’s policeman.” Now, this sentiment is shared by the US president-elect.
The US partner organization of the Humboldt Foundation, which you lead, promotes international scientific exchange by granting fellowships to young and established researchers who come to Germany for their research. How do you think Trump’s election will affect this work?
Hänel: The general expectation is that there will be significant tension in the relationship between Germany and the United States over the next four years. For our organization, this also provides opportunities. Our job is to promote and shape exchange and cooperation across the Atlantic. If everything went smoothly, what would our relevance be as bridge-builders and mediators?
When Donald Trump was first elected President, I was still at the Robert Bosch Foundation. We had a scholarship program for young American leaders who spent a year in Germany. The number of applicants skyrocketed in 2017 but normalized in the following years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see similar trends this time around. It will also be interesting to see how the numbers of US-bound international scholarship recipients shape up—and whether many of these individuals opt to apply to other countries instead.